MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
32-29 | Road
116
PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
28-32 | Home
98
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
SUNS
100%
TIMBERWOLVES
--
SUNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
226.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.3
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.3 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIN -6.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
MIN By 1-7 points
26.7%
MIN By 8-14 points
24.6%
PHX By 1-7 points
16.5%
PHX By 8-14 points
6.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
116.35
MINNESOTA
Phoenix
110.08
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
Minnesota
118
MINNESOTA
Phoenix
122
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Timberwolves
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Suns
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Timberwolves (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.3
D
Sim
Suns (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 226.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 240.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 17, 2026
PHX @ MIN
104 - 116
Dec 8, 2025
PHX @ MIN
108 - 105
Nov 21, 2025
MIN @ PHX
113 - 114
Mar 28, 2025
PHX @ MIN
109 - 124
Mar 2, 2025
MIN @ PHX
116 - 98
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+43.6% more
Minnesota: 10.6
vs
Phoenix: 6.0
Turnovers (L5)
+37.5% more
Phoenix: 14.4
vs
Minnesota: 10.5
Blocks (L5)
+15.9% more
Phoenix: 4.9
vs
Minnesota: 4.2
Assists (L5)
+10.8% more
Phoenix: 31.7
vs
Minnesota: 28.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
116.4
116
PHX Score
110.1
98
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
43.7 / 33.3
31.0 / 40.4
Assists
31.7 / 28.6
24.0 / 28.0
Blocks
4.9 / 4.2
7.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
52.5 / 43.4
43.8 / 42.4
Free Throw %
79.4 / 75.2
78.9 / 81.0
Rebounding
42.4 / 43.8
57.0 / 35.0
Steals
6.0 / 10.6
2.0 / 18.0
Turnovers
14.4 / 10.5
22.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
Advantage
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
PHX
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
MIN
PHX
MIN
ML
57%
60-45
54%
63-53
51%
45-43
54%
50-43
ATS
58%
59-43-3
58%
67-49
51%
45-43
54%
50-43
TTL
59%
61-42-2
63%
72-43-1
100%
88-0
100%
93-0
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