TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
37-20-2 | Road
6
PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
24-29-9 | Home
5
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Morgan Rielly
#44 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Joel Blomqvist
#30 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Rielly | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Joel Blomqvist | None-None | 5.90 | 0.818 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
5.90
--
Save %
0.818
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
PENGUINS
100%
MAPLE LEAFS
--
PENGUINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around TOR -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1 goal
19.7%
TOR By 2-3 goals
28.4%
PIT By 1 goal
12.7%
PIT By 2-3 goals
10.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
3.54
TORONTO
Pittsburgh
2.65
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Pittsburgh
2
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.9
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 23, 2025
PIT @ TOR
3 - 6
Nov 29, 2025
TOR @ PIT
7 - 2
Nov 3, 2025
PIT @ TOR
3 - 4
Mar 2, 2025
TOR @ PIT
6 - 5
Dec 7, 2024
TOR @ PIT
2 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+43.3% more
Toronto: 18.7
vs
Pittsburgh: 10.6
Takeaways (L5)
+30.8% more
Toronto: 5.5
vs
Pittsburgh: 3.8
Power Play % (L5)
+15.0%
Toronto: 24.3%
vs
Pittsburgh: 9.4%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+24.1% more
Pittsburgh: 30.1
vs
Toronto: 24.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
3.5
6
PIT Score
2.7
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
10.6 / 18.7
13.0 / 19.0
Faceoff %
57.6 / 49.9
44.1 / 55.9
Hits
24.5 / 22.4
13.0 / 23.0
Power Play %
9.4 / 24.3
50.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
30.1 / 24.3
34.0 / 33.0
Takeaways
3.8 / 5.5
7.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
TOR
PIT
TOR
ML
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
ATS
75%
3-1
0%
0-4
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
TTL
25%
1-3
100%
4-0
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
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