Home / NBA Projections NBA / Bucks @ Mavericks MIL @ DAL

MILWAUKEE

BUCKSMIL

33-25  |  Road

132
FINAL
Sat, Mar 1 • 8:30 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

32-28  |  Home

117
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKS
100%
📊
MAVERICKS
0%
BUCKS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Dallas)
BucksMIL (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bucks Cover

41.1%

Mavericks Cover

58.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAL -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

MIL By 1-7 points

22.7%

MIL By 8-14 points

11.8%

DAL By 1-7 points

27.0%

DAL By 8-14 points

18.9%

AI Model Projected Score
111.18
MILWAUKEE
113.42
DALLAS
Simulated Score
118
MILWAUKEE
112
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mavericks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bucks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mavericks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.2
D
Sim Bucks (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 224.6
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 31, 2026 DAL @ MIL 99 - 123
Nov 10, 2025 MIL @ DAL 116 - 114
Mar 5, 2025 DAL @ MIL 107 - 137
Mar 1, 2025 MIL @ DAL 132 - 117
Oct 17, 2024 MIL @ DAL 84 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +64.4% more
Dallas: 6.9 vs Milwaukee: 4.2
Steals (L5) +12.1% more
Dallas: 8.9 vs Milwaukee: 8.0
Field Goal % (L5) +3.3%
Milwaukee: 45.9% vs Dallas: 42.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIL Score 111.2 132
DAL Score 113.4 117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.2 / 36.6 27.5 / 33.3
Assists 24.2 / 23.3 25.0 / 33.0
Blocks 6.9 / 4.2 1.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 42.6 / 45.9 47.3 / 50.6
Free Throw % 78.6 / 78.7 80.0 / 88.6
Rebounding 44.5 / 43.1 33.0 / 52.0
Steals 8.9 / 8.0 7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.3 / 13.0 11.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
86%MONEY14%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL Advantage
32-50-0 (39.0%)
Margin: -6.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -6.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4% Total +/-: +1.4
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
MIL
DAL
MIL
ML
62% 63-39
64% 61-35
54% 44-37
60% 49-32
ATS
67% 68-34
68% 65-31
54% 44-37
60% 49-32
TTL
59% 60-41-1
55% 53-43
100% 81-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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