TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
36-20-2 | Road
3
NEW YORK
RANGERSNYR
29-25-4 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Anthony Stolarz
#41 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Igor Shesterkin
#31 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Stolarz | None-None | 2.00 | 0.943 | -- |
| Igor Shesterkin | None-None | 3.13 | 0.813 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.00 Ldr
GAA
3.13
0.943 Ldr
Save %
0.813
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
RANGERS
100%
MAPLE LEAFS
--
RANGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around TOR -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1 goal
19.6%
TOR By 2-3 goals
26.8%
NYR By 1 goal
13.6%
NYR By 2-3 goals
11.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
3.68
TORONTO
New York
2.94
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
New York
2
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.7
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 25, 2026
NYR @ TOR
3 - 4
Mar 5, 2026
TOR @ NYR
2 - 6
Oct 16, 2025
NYR @ TOR
1 - 2
Mar 20, 2025
TOR @ NYR
4 - 3
Feb 28, 2025
TOR @ NYR
3 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+20.3% more
Toronto: 28.4
vs
New York: 22.7
Takeaways (L5)
+17.7% more
Toronto: 6.2
vs
New York: 5.1
Faceoff % (L5)
+5.8%
Toronto: 56.1%
vs
New York: 50.3%
Hits (L5)
+47.6% more
New York: 34.2
vs
Toronto: 23.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
3.7
3
NYR Score
2.9
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
16.9 / 15.5
9.0 / 25.0
Faceoff %
50.3 / 56.1
62.3 / 37.7
Hits
34.2 / 23.2
21.0 / 21.0
Power Play %
30.2 / 24.0
0.0 / 25.0
Shots on Goal
22.7 / 28.4
35.0 / 16.0
Takeaways
5.1 / 6.2
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYR
TOR
NYR
TOR
ML
80%
4-1
50%
2-2
40%
2-3
50%
2-2
ATS
80%
4-1
0%
0-4
60%
3-2
75%
3-1
TTL
60%
3-2
100%
4-0
60%
3-2
75%
3-1
Contextual Game News
Joseph Woll's Strong Start in Philadelphia Has Maple Leafs Fans …
Canadiens Turn to Rookie Jacob Fowler in Net Against Predators; …
Islanders Shuffle Defense Pairings in Wake of Romanov's ACL Tear
Nashville Predators' Early Season: Three Burning Questions After…
Islanders' Blue Line Shake-Up: Three Defenders Who Must Elevate …