DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
38-20 | Road
112
MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
32-25 | Home
121
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
100%
BUCKS
0%
NUGGETS
--
BUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
235.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIL -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
DEN By 1-7 points
23.7%
DEN By 8-14 points
12.9%
MIL By 1-7 points
26.6%
MIL By 8-14 points
17.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
116.8
DENVER
Milwaukee
118.31
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Denver
118
DENVER
Milwaukee
122
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bucks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bucks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bucks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.5
D
Sim
Bucks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 235.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 240.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 23, 2026
DEN @ MIL
102 - 100
Jan 11, 2026
MIL @ DEN
104 - 108
Mar 26, 2025
MIL @ DEN
117 - 127
Feb 27, 2025
DEN @ MIL
112 - 121
Feb 12, 2024
DEN @ MIL
95 - 112
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+24.9% more
Milwaukee: 4.3
vs
Denver: 3.4
Steals (L5)
+13.1% more
Milwaukee: 7.9
vs
Denver: 7.0
Assists (L5)
+32.3% more
Denver: 33.1
vs
Milwaukee: 22.4
Turnovers (L5)
+18.9% more
Denver: 17.3
vs
Milwaukee: 14.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
116.8
112
MIL Score
118.3
121
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.3 / 39.2
41.2 / 26.5
Assists
22.4 / 33.1
25.0 / 28.0
Blocks
4.3 / 3.4
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
45.5 / 51.3
46.7 / 44.8
Free Throw %
77.0 / 79.0
82.1 / 81.8
Rebounding
40.6 / 47.5
48.0 / 55.0
Steals
7.9 / 7.0
8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
14.1 / 17.3
11.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
MIL
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
DEN
MIL
DEN
ML
64%
61-35
54%
57-48
60%
49-32
55%
47-39
ATS
68%
65-31
63%
65-38-2
60%
49-32
55%
47-39
TTL
55%
53-43
54%
56-48-1
100%
81-0
100%
86-0
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