PHILADELPHIA
FLYERSPHI
26-26-7 | Road
4
PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
23-28-9 | Home
5
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Noel Acciari
#52 | Center@
GOALTENDER
Joel Blomqvist
#30 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noel Acciari | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Joel Blomqvist | None-None | 1.78 | 0.957 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
1.78
--
Save %
0.957
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
FLYERS
100%
PENGUINS
0%
FLYERS
--
PENGUINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around PIT -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
PHI By 1 goal
15.0%
PHI By 2-3 goals
13.7%
PIT By 1 goal
19.1%
PIT By 2-3 goals
24.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
1.82
PHILADELPHIA
Pittsburgh
2.31
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
2
PHILADELPHIA
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Penguins
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Penguins
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Penguins (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.5
D
Sim
Penguins (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 4.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 30, 2026
PIT @ PHI
7 - 0
Apr 29, 2026
PIT @ PHI
0 - 1
Apr 27, 2026
PHI @ PIT
2 - 3
Apr 25, 2026
PIT @ PHI
4 - 2
Apr 22, 2026
PIT @ PHI
2 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+19.9% more
Pittsburgh: 5.6
vs
Philadelphia: 4.6
Faceoff % (L5)
+3.7%
Pittsburgh: 53.9%
vs
Philadelphia: 50.2%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+21.2% more
Philadelphia: 17.2
vs
Pittsburgh: 13.6
Power Play % (L5)
+6.5%
Philadelphia: 16.9%
vs
Pittsburgh: 10.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
1.8
4
PIT Score
2.3
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
13.6 / 17.2
10.0 / 15.0
Faceoff %
53.9 / 50.2
57.1 / 42.9
Hits
16.9 / 18.0
36.0 / 20.0
Power Play %
10.4 / 16.9
0.0 / 50.0
Shots on Goal
30.5 / 29.5
25.0 / 37.0
Takeaways
5.6 / 4.6
3.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
PHI
PIT
PHI
ML
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
ATS
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
TTL
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
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