MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
32-24 | Road
97
HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
35-22 | Home
100
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKS
100%
ROCKETS
0%
BUCKS
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
219.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
MIL By 1-7 points
23.9%
MIL By 8-14 points
13.2%
HOU By 1-7 points
26.4%
HOU By 8-14 points
17.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
109.3
MILWAUKEE
Houston
110.6
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
117
MILWAUKEE
Houston
106
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rockets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bucks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rockets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.3
D
Sim
Bucks (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 219.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 1, 2026
MIL @ HOU
113 - 119
Nov 9, 2025
HOU @ MIL
122 - 115
Feb 25, 2025
MIL @ HOU
97 - 100
Nov 18, 2024
HOU @ MIL
100 - 101
Jan 6, 2024
MIL @ HOU
108 - 112
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+9.6% more
Houston: 46.4
vs
Milwaukee: 42.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.1%
Houston: 38.4%
vs
Milwaukee: 35.3%
Free Throw % (L5)
+14.2%
Milwaukee: 78.5%
vs
Houston: 64.3%
Steals (L5)
+13.9% more
Milwaukee: 6.4
vs
Houston: 5.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
109.3
97
HOU Score
110.6
100
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.4 / 35.3
34.3 / 32.4
Assists
25.9 / 24.1
18.0 / 19.0
Blocks
4.1 / 3.9
9.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
44.6 / 48.3
40.7 / 40.0
Free Throw %
64.3 / 78.5
77.8 / 73.9
Rebounding
46.4 / 42.4
53.0 / 37.0
Steals
5.5 / 6.4
6.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
13.5 / 13.6
17.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
Advantage
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
MIL
HOU
MIL
ML
61%
69-44
64%
61-35
59%
51-35
60%
49-32
ATS
62%
70-43
68%
65-31
59%
51-35
60%
49-32
TTL
51%
58-55
55%
53-43
100%
86-0
100%
81-0
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