PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
23-27-9 | Road
1
PHILADELPHIA
FLYERSPHI
25-26-7 | Home
6
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Andrei Kuzmenko
#62 | Left Wing@
GOALTENDER
Egor Zamula
#5 | D| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Kuzmenko | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Egor Zamula | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
--
--
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
0%
FLYERS
100%
PENGUINS
--
FLYERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around PIT -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
PIT By 1 goal
18.2%
PIT By 2-3 goals
20.6%
PHI By 1 goal
16.6%
PHI By 2-3 goals
16.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
2.04
PITTSBURGH
Philadelphia
1.86
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Penguins
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Penguins
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Penguins (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.2
D
Sim
Penguins (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 3.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 30, 2026
PIT @ PHI
7 - 0
Apr 29, 2026
PIT @ PHI
0 - 1
Apr 27, 2026
PHI @ PIT
2 - 3
Apr 25, 2026
PIT @ PHI
4 - 2
Apr 22, 2026
PIT @ PHI
2 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+25.3% more
Pittsburgh: 33.8
vs
Philadelphia: 25.3
Takeaways (L5)
+21.7% more
Pittsburgh: 6.3
vs
Philadelphia: 5.0
Hits (L5)
+25.8% more
Philadelphia: 20.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 15.9
Blocked Shots (L5)
+15.5% more
Philadelphia: 18.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 15.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
2.0
1
PHI Score
1.9
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
18.3 / 15.8
15.0 / 9.0
Faceoff %
52.5 / 53.6
45.5 / 54.5
Hits
20.0 / 15.9
14.0 / 19.0
Power Play %
2534.0 / 1560.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
25.3 / 33.8
38.0 / 24.0
Takeaways
5.0 / 6.3
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
PIT
PHI
PIT
ML
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
ATS
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
TTL
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
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