MIAMI
HEATMIA
26-28 | Road
113
MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
31-24 | Home
120
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
100%
BUCKS
0%
HEAT
--
BUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
214.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.1
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIL -3.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
MIA By 1-7 points
21.4%
MIA By 8-14 points
10.5%
MIL By 1-7 points
27.3%
MIL By 8-14 points
20.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
105.46
MIAMI
Milwaukee
108.6
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Miami
101
MIAMI
Milwaukee
106
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bucks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bucks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bucks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.1
D
Sim
Bucks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 214.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 207.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 12, 2026
MIL @ MIA
105 - 112
Feb 24, 2026
MIA @ MIL
117 - 128
Nov 26, 2025
MIL @ MIA
103 - 106
Oct 6, 2025
MIL @ MIA
103 - 93
Apr 5, 2025
MIL @ MIA
121 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+19.1% more
Milwaukee: 4.4
vs
Miami: 3.7
Turnovers (L5)
+17.6% more
Milwaukee: 15.9
vs
Miami: 13.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.6%
Milwaukee: 35.0%
vs
Miami: 32.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
105.5
113
MIL Score
108.6
120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.0 / 32.4
35.9 / 29.0
Assists
23.7 / 22.6
25.0 / 25.0
Blocks
4.4 / 3.7
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
46.8 / 46.2
51.2 / 46.6
Free Throw %
76.8 / 77.9
81.8 / 84.6
Rebounding
43.6 / 44.6
40.0 / 46.0
Steals
7.6 / 7.1
4.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
15.9 / 13.5
9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
MIL
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
MIA
MIL
MIA
ML
64%
61-35
48%
46-50
60%
49-32
59%
48-34
ATS
68%
65-31
51%
49-47
60%
49-32
59%
48-34
TTL
55%
53-43
59%
57-39
100%
81-0
100%
82-0
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