MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
31-25 | Road
115
HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
34-21 | Home
121
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
ROCKETS
100%
TIMBERWOLVES
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
223.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.2
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.2 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIN -6.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
MIN By 1-7 points
26.7%
MIN By 8-14 points
24.5%
HOU By 1-7 points
16.6%
HOU By 8-14 points
6.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
114.76
MINNESOTA
Houston
108.53
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Minnesota
112
MINNESOTA
Houston
105
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Timberwolves
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Timberwolves
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Timberwolves (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.2
D
Sim
Timberwolves (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 223.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 10, 2026
MIN @ HOU
136 - 132
Mar 25, 2026
HOU @ MIN
108 - 110
Jan 16, 2026
MIN @ HOU
105 - 110
Feb 21, 2025
MIN @ HOU
115 - 121
Feb 6, 2025
HOU @ MIN
114 - 127
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+18.8%
Minnesota: 84.4%
vs
Houston: 65.5%
Steals (L5)
+26.3% more
Houston: 7.7
vs
Minnesota: 6.1
Turnovers (L5)
+19.1% more
Houston: 15.1
vs
Minnesota: 12.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.0%
Houston: 31.7%
vs
Minnesota: 29.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
114.8
115
HOU Score
108.5
121
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.7 / 29.6
50.0 / 28.9
Assists
24.5 / 25.4
18.0 / 22.0
Blocks
4.7 / 4.4
6.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
42.4 / 42.9
50.0 / 44.6
Free Throw %
65.5 / 84.4
75.0 / 84.6
Rebounding
49.7 / 50.7
48.0 / 35.0
Steals
7.7 / 6.1
5.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
15.1 / 12.7
20.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
Advantage
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
MIN
HOU
MIN
ML
61%
69-44
54%
63-53
59%
51-35
54%
50-43
ATS
62%
70-43
58%
67-49
59%
51-35
54%
50-43
TTL
51%
58-55
63%
72-43-1
100%
86-0
100%
93-0
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