MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
28-24 | Road
103
MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
30-24 | Home
101
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKS
100%
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
BUCKS
--
TIMBERWOLVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
233.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.7
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.7 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIN -5.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
MIL By 1-7 points
17.5%
MIL By 8-14 points
7.2%
MIN By 1-7 points
27.0%
MIN By 8-14 points
23.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
113.8
MILWAUKEE
Minnesota
119.46
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
112
MILWAUKEE
Minnesota
107
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Timberwolves
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bucks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Timberwolves (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.7
D
Sim
Bucks (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 233.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 219.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 13, 2026
MIN @ MIL
139 - 106
Dec 21, 2025
MIL @ MIN
100 - 103
Apr 8, 2025
MIN @ MIL
103 - 110
Feb 12, 2025
MIL @ MIN
103 - 101
Feb 23, 2024
MIL @ MIN
112 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+43.4% more
Minnesota: 5.4
vs
Milwaukee: 3.7
Steals (L5)
+30.3% more
Minnesota: 7.9
vs
Milwaukee: 6.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.8%
Milwaukee: 81.1%
vs
Minnesota: 78.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
113.8
103
MIN Score
119.5
101
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.7 / 36.9
22.7 / 40.0
Assists
22.6 / 24.5
27.0 / 24.0
Blocks
5.4 / 3.7
6.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
45.7 / 46.6
37.9 / 44.3
Free Throw %
78.3 / 81.1
86.7 / 81.3
Rebounding
44.1 / 42.7
59.0 / 48.0
Steals
7.9 / 6.1
4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
14.0 / 14.4
14.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
MIN
Advantage
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
MIN
Advantage
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
MIL
MIN
MIL
ML
54%
63-53
64%
61-35
54%
50-43
60%
49-32
ATS
58%
67-49
68%
65-31
54%
50-43
60%
49-32
TTL
63%
72-43-1
55%
53-43
100%
93-0
100%
81-0
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