HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
32-19 | Road
105
DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
27-25 | Home
116
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
100%
MAVERICKS
0%
ROCKETS
--
MAVERICKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
226.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Dallas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAL -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)
HOU By 1-7 points
23.7%
HOU By 8-14 points
12.9%
DAL By 1-7 points
26.6%
DAL By 8-14 points
17.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
112.3
HOUSTON
Dallas
113.81
DALLAS
Simulated Score
Houston
122
HOUSTON
Dallas
118
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mavericks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mavericks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.5
D
Sim
Rockets (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 226.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 240.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 31, 2026
DAL @ HOU
107 - 111
Jan 3, 2026
HOU @ DAL
104 - 110
Dec 6, 2025
HOU @ DAL
109 - 122
Nov 3, 2025
DAL @ HOU
102 - 110
Mar 14, 2025
DAL @ HOU
96 - 133
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+11.4% more
Dallas: 26.9
vs
Houston: 24.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.1%
Dallas: 78.7%
vs
Houston: 74.6%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.8%
Dallas: 49.0%
vs
Houston: 45.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+1.9%
Dallas: 37.1%
vs
Houston: 35.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
112.3
105
DAL Score
113.8
116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.1 / 35.2
52.2 / 28.6
Assists
26.9 / 24.1
22.0 / 21.0
Blocks
5.2 / 5.9
18.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
49.0 / 45.2
47.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
78.7 / 74.6
76.5 / 77.3
Rebounding
42.2 / 43.6
43.0 / 48.0
Steals
7.2 / 8.8
4.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
12.6 / 14.4
6.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
DAL
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
DAL
Advantage
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
HOU
DAL
HOU
ML
62%
63-39
61%
69-44
54%
44-37
59%
51-35
ATS
67%
68-34
62%
70-43
54%
44-37
59%
51-35
TTL
59%
60-41-1
51%
58-55
100%
81-0
100%
86-0
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