PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
23-24-9 | Road
2
PHILADELPHIA
FLYERSPHI
23-26-7 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Joel Blomqvist
#30 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Cam York
#8 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Blomqvist | None-None | 3.09 | 0.850 | -- |
| Cam York | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.09
GAA
--
0.850
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
0%
FLYERS
100%
PENGUINS
--
FLYERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around PIT -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
PIT By 1 goal
19.0%
PIT By 2-3 goals
23.5%
PHI By 1 goal
15.3%
PHI By 2-3 goals
14.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
2.13
PITTSBURGH
Philadelphia
1.69
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Philadelphia
2
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Penguins
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Penguins
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Penguins (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.4
D
Sim
Penguins (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 3.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 30, 2026
PIT @ PHI
7 - 0
Apr 29, 2026
PIT @ PHI
0 - 1
Apr 27, 2026
PHI @ PIT
2 - 3
Apr 25, 2026
PIT @ PHI
4 - 2
Apr 22, 2026
PIT @ PHI
2 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+20.2% more
Pittsburgh: 28.6
vs
Philadelphia: 22.8
Blocked Shots (L5)
+16.2% more
Pittsburgh: 18.1
vs
Philadelphia: 15.2
Takeaways (L5)
+12.3% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7
vs
Philadelphia: 4.1
Faceoff % (L5)
+5.2%
Pittsburgh: 53.3%
vs
Philadelphia: 48.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
2.1
2
PHI Score
1.7
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.2 / 18.1
34.0 / 16.0
Faceoff %
48.1 / 53.3
60.0 / 40.0
Hits
22.4 / 22.4
18.0 / 15.0
Power Play %
1951.0 / 1515.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
22.8 / 28.6
20.0 / 33.0
Takeaways
4.1 / 4.7
8.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
PIT
PHI
PIT
ML
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
ATS
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
TTL
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
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