Home / NBA Projections NBA / Rockets @ Timberwolves HOU @ MIN

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

32-18  |  Road

114
FINAL
Thu, Feb 6 • 8:00 PM ET
Target Center
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

28-23  |  Home

127
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
100%
📊
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
ROCKETS --
TIMBERWOLVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.7
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.7 points (Minnesota)
RocketsHOU (-3.5) 0 TimberwolvesMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockets Cover

16.7%

Timberwolves Cover

83.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIN -9.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

HOU By 1-7 points

11.2%

HOU By 8-14 points

3.5%

MIN By 1-7 points

23.5%

MIN By 8-14 points

27.1%

AI Model Projected Score
110.32
HOUSTON
119.97
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
117
HOUSTON
123
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Timberwolves Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Timberwolves Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Timberwolves (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.7
D
Sim Timberwolves (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 230.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 240.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 10, 2026 MIN @ HOU 136 - 132
Mar 25, 2026 HOU @ MIN 108 - 110
Jan 16, 2026 MIN @ HOU 105 - 110
Feb 21, 2025 MIN @ HOU 115 - 121
Feb 6, 2025 HOU @ MIN 114 - 127
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +26.6% more
Minnesota: 6.8 vs Houston: 5.4
Assists (L5) +22.4% more
Minnesota: 28.4 vs Houston: 23.2
Free Throw % (L5) +9.7%
Minnesota: 85.9% vs Houston: 76.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.3%
Minnesota: 38.7% vs Houston: 33.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 110.3 114
MIN Score 120.0 127
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.7 / 33.4 41.0 / 38.7
Assists 28.4 / 23.2 23.0 / 26.0
Blocks 6.8 / 5.4 6.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 46.1 / 43.4 47.9 / 48.8
Free Throw % 85.9 / 76.2 87.5 / 71.4
Rebounding 46.9 / 45.8 47.0 / 39.0
Steals 7.0 / 7.2 5.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 12.2 / 15.7 13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
MIN
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
MIN Advantage
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
HOU
MIN
HOU
ML
54% 63-53
61% 69-44
54% 50-43
59% 51-35
ATS
58% 67-49
62% 70-43
54% 50-43
59% 51-35
TTL
63% 72-43-1
51% 58-55
100% 93-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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