WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
35-11-7 | Road
4
PHILADELPHIA
FLYERSPHI
23-25-7 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Charlie Lindgren
#79 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Ivan Fedotov
#82 | G| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren | None-None | 3.00 | 0.864 | -- |
| Ivan Fedotov | None-None | 4.14 | 0.778 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.00 Ldr
GAA
4.14
0.864 Ldr
Save %
0.778
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
0%
FLYERS
100%
CAPITALS
--
FLYERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around WSH -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
WSH By 1 goal
19.7%
WSH By 2-3 goals
28.1%
PHI By 1 goal
12.9%
PHI By 2-3 goals
10.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
2.9
WASHINGTON
Philadelphia
2.04
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Philadelphia
2
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Capitals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Capitals
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Capitals (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.9
D
Sim
Capitals (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 4.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 31, 2026
PHI @ WSH
4 - 6
Mar 11, 2026
WSH @ PHI
1 - 4
Feb 25, 2026
PHI @ WSH
1 - 3
Feb 3, 2026
WSH @ PHI
2 - 4
Sep 25, 2025
PHI @ WSH
1 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+17.3% more
Washington: 28.1
vs
Philadelphia: 23.2
Power Play % (L5)
+4.3%
Washington: 8.5%
vs
Philadelphia: 4.3%
Faceoff % (L5)
+3.2%
Washington: 46.6%
vs
Philadelphia: 43.4%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+13.4% more
Philadelphia: 17.8
vs
Washington: 15.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
2.9
4
PHI Score
2.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
17.8 / 15.7
10.0 / 13.0
Faceoff %
43.4 / 46.6
57.4 / 42.6
Hits
21.1 / 19.1
25.0 / 9.0
Power Play %
4.3 / 8.5
50.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
23.2 / 28.1
22.0 / 18.0
Takeaways
4.2 / 3.8
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
WSH
PHI
WSH
ML
75%
3-1
100%
3-0
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
ATS
25%
1-3
100%
3-0
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
TTL
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
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