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TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

31-19-2  |  Road

6
FINAL
Tue, Feb 4 • 9:00 PM ET
Scotiabank Saddledome
View Odds Details →

CALGARY

FLAMESCGY

26-19-7  |  Home

3
Goaltending
Chris Tanev
GOALTENDER

Chris Tanev

#8 | Defense
@
Dustin Wolf
GOALTENDER

Dustin Wolf

#32 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Chris Tanev None-None -- -- --
Dustin Wolf None-None 5.23 0.828 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA 5.23
-- Save % 0.828
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
📊
FLAMES
100%
MAPLE LEAFS --
FLAMES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Toronto)
Maple LeafsTOR (-3.5) 0 FlamesCGY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Maple Leafs Cover

60.3%

Flames Cover

39.7%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around TOR -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

TOR By 1 goal

19.2%

TOR By 2-3 goals

24.4%

CGY By 1 goal

14.9%

CGY By 2-3 goals

13.4%

AI Model Projected Score
2.92
TORONTO
2.4
CALGARY
Simulated Score
4
TORONTO
3
CALGARY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Maple Leafs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Maple Leafs Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Maple Leafs (-0) Win
Proj Goals: -0.5
D
Sim Maple Leafs (-0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 5.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 2, 2026 TOR @ CGY 4 - 2
Oct 28, 2025 CGY @ TOR 3 - 4
Mar 17, 2025 CGY @ TOR 2 - 6
Feb 4, 2025 TOR @ CGY 6 - 3
Jan 18, 2024 TOR @ CGY 4 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +15.8% more
Toronto: 5.3 vs Calgary: 4.5
Power Play % (L5) +11.6%
Toronto: 44.3% vs Calgary: 32.8%
Faceoff % (L5) +2.1%
Toronto: 55.2% vs Calgary: 53.0%
Hits (L5) +12.3% more
Calgary: 21.7 vs Toronto: 19.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 2.9 6
CGY Score 2.4 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 17.4 / 15.6 14.0 / 23.0
Faceoff % 53.0 / 55.2 47.2 / 52.8
Hits 21.7 / 19.4 22.0 / 20.0
Power Play % 32.8 / 44.3 40.0 / 50.0
Shots on Goal 32.0 / 29.9 26.0 / 30.0
Takeaways 4.5 / 5.3 6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
87%MONEY13%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CGY
TOR
CGY
TOR
ML
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
ATS
33% 1-2
0% 0-4
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
TTL
67% 2-1
100% 4-0
0% 0-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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