MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
32-16 | Road
132
MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
26-20 | Home
119
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
0%
BUCKS
100%
GRIZZLIES
--
BUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
248.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Memphis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MEM -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)
MEM By 1-7 points
26.1%
MEM By 8-14 points
16.7%
MIL By 1-7 points
24.4%
MIL By 8-14 points
13.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Memphis
124.64
MEMPHIS
Milwaukee
123.79
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Memphis
100
MEMPHIS
Milwaukee
115
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Grizzlies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bucks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Grizzlies (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -0.8
D
Sim
Bucks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 248.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 215.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 5, 2026
MEM @ MIL
115 - 131
Dec 26, 2025
MIL @ MEM
104 - 125
Feb 2, 2025
MEM @ MIL
132 - 119
Oct 31, 2024
MIL @ MEM
99 - 122
Apr 3, 2024
MEM @ MIL
111 - 101
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+35.4% more
Memphis: 7.6
vs
Milwaukee: 4.9
Turnovers (L5)
+31.7% more
Memphis: 16.0
vs
Milwaukee: 10.9
Blocks (L5)
+18.0% more
Memphis: 6.6
vs
Milwaukee: 5.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.1%
Memphis: 81.2%
vs
Milwaukee: 73.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MEM Score
124.6
132
MIL Score
123.8
119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.1 / 36.4
44.4 / 35.9
Assists
26.7 / 26.0
32.0 / 37.0
Blocks
5.4 / 6.6
5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
49.1 / 50.0
48.4 / 48.6
Free Throw %
73.1 / 81.2
57.9 / 63.6
Rebounding
44.4 / 42.2
36.0 / 61.0
Steals
4.9 / 7.6
7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
10.9 / 16.0
13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
MIL
Advantage
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
Advantage
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
MEM
MIL
MEM
ML
64%
61-35
57%
59-44
60%
49-32
50%
41-41
ATS
68%
65-31
63%
65-38
60%
49-32
50%
41-41
TTL
55%
53-43
70%
71-31-1
100%
81-0
100%
82-0
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