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TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

30-19-2  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sat, Feb 1 • 7:00 PM ET
Rogers Place
View Odds Details →

EDMONTON

OILERSEDM

32-15-4  |  Home

3
Goaltending
Troy Stecher
GOALTENDER

Troy Stecher

#28 | Defense
@
Ty Emberson
GOALTENDER

Ty Emberson

#49 | Defense
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Troy Stecher None-None -- -- --
Ty Emberson None-None -- -- --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA --
-- Save % --
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
📊
OILERS
0%
MAPLE LEAFS --
OILERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
EDMONTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Edmonton)
Maple LeafsTOR (-3.5) 0 OilersEDM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Maple Leafs Cover

43.1%

Oilers Cover

56.9%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around EDM -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EDM)

TOR By 1 goal

15.8%

TOR By 2-3 goals

15.0%

EDM By 1 goal

18.7%

EDM By 2-3 goals

22.5%

AI Model Projected Score
2.83
TORONTO
3.18
EDMONTON
Simulated Score
4
TORONTO
5
EDMONTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Oilers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Oilers Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Oilers (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -0.4
D
Sim Oilers (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 3, 2026 TOR @ EDM 5 - 2
Dec 13, 2025 EDM @ TOR 6 - 3
Feb 1, 2025 TOR @ EDM 4 - 3
Nov 16, 2024 EDM @ TOR 3 - 4
Mar 23, 2024 EDM @ TOR 3 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +23.0% more
Edmonton: 14.0 vs Toronto: 11.4
Shots on Goal (L5) +18.6% more
Edmonton: 36.6 vs Toronto: 30.8
Takeaways (L5) +8.5% more
Edmonton: 4.9 vs Toronto: 4.5
Power Play % (L5) +2.4%
Edmonton: 18.9% vs Toronto: 16.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 2.8 4
EDM Score 3.2 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 14.0 / 11.4 7.0 / 24.0
Faceoff % 48.0 / 56.3 47.1 / 52.9
Hits 14.3 / 20.5 17.0 / 17.0
Power Play % 18.9 / 16.5 0.0 / 100.0
Shots on Goal 36.6 / 30.8 48.0 / 28.0
Takeaways 4.9 / 4.5 2.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
91%MONEY9%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EDM
TOR
EDM
TOR
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
75% 3-1
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
TTL
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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