WINNIPEG
JETSWPG
36-14-3 | Road
5
WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
34-11-6 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Connor Hellebuyck
#37 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Logan Thompson
#48 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck | None-None | 3.87 | 0.862 | -- |
| Logan Thompson | None-None | 4.84 | 0.833 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.87 Ldr
GAA
4.84
0.862 Ldr
Save %
0.833
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
JETS
100%
CAPITALS
0%
JETS
--
CAPITALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around WSH -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
WPG By 1 goal
15.7%
WPG By 2-3 goals
14.8%
WSH By 1 goal
18.8%
WSH By 2-3 goals
22.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Winnipeg
3.16
WINNIPEG
Washington
3.53
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Winnipeg
4
WINNIPEG
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Capitals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Jets
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Capitals (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.4
D
Sim
Jets (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 13, 2025
WSH @ WPG
1 - 5
Nov 26, 2025
WPG @ WSH
3 - 4
Mar 25, 2025
WSH @ WPG
2 - 3
Feb 1, 2025
WPG @ WSH
5 - 4
Mar 24, 2024
WPG @ WSH
0 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+15.5% more
Washington: 6.7
vs
Winnipeg: 5.8
Faceoff % (L5)
+4.9%
Washington: 49.5%
vs
Winnipeg: 44.6%
Power Play % (L5)
+24.4%
Winnipeg: 43.5%
vs
Washington: 19.1%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+20.8% more
Winnipeg: 18.3
vs
Washington: 14.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WPG Score
3.2
5
WSH Score
3.5
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.5 / 18.3
13.0 / 14.0
Faceoff %
49.5 / 44.6
40.0 / 60.0
Hits
18.3 / 17.8
24.0 / 9.0
Power Play %
19.1 / 43.5
0.0 / 50.0
Shots on Goal
29.2 / 27.2
29.0 / 30.0
Takeaways
6.7 / 5.8
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
WPG
WSH
WPG
ML
100%
3-0
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
ATS
100%
3-0
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
100%
4-0
TTL
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
Contextual Game News
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