ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
22-25 | Road
115
CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
38-9 | Home
137
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
100%
CAVALIERS
0%
HAWKS
--
CAVALIERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
227.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CLE -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
ATL By 1-7 points
24.9%
ATL By 8-14 points
14.6%
CLE By 1-7 points
25.7%
CLE By 8-14 points
16.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
113.49
ATLANTA
Cleveland
113.9
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Atlanta
108
ATLANTA
Cleveland
115
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cavaliers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -0.4
D
Sim
Cavaliers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 227.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 10, 2026
CLE @ ATL
102 - 124
Apr 8, 2026
ATL @ CLE
116 - 122
Nov 28, 2025
CLE @ ATL
123 - 130
Nov 2, 2025
ATL @ CLE
109 - 117
Jan 30, 2025
ATL @ CLE
115 - 137
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+18.7% more
Cleveland: 28.3
vs
Atlanta: 23.9
Field Goal % (L5)
+7.8%
Cleveland: 49.2%
vs
Atlanta: 41.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.8%
Cleveland: 34.5%
vs
Atlanta: 27.7%
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.6%
Cleveland: 79.1%
vs
Atlanta: 74.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
113.5
115
CLE Score
113.9
137
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.5 / 27.7
33.3 / 33.3
Assists
28.3 / 23.9
34.0 / 28.0
Blocks
3.5 / 4.3
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
49.2 / 41.4
58.2 / 45.6
Free Throw %
79.1 / 74.4
90.0 / 74.1
Rebounding
46.3 / 43.8
49.0 / 36.0
Steals
7.7 / 11.3
9.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
10.2 / 19.2
12.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
CLE
Advantage
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
ATL
CLE
ATL
ML
60%
69-46
50%
52-52
56%
55-44
55%
48-40
ATS
67%
75-37-3
53%
55-48-1
56%
55-44
55%
48-40
TTL
59%
68-47
53%
55-48-1
100%
99-0
100%
88-0
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