HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
32-14 | Road
119
MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
31-16 | Home
120
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
GRIZZLIES
100%
ROCKETS
--
GRIZZLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
244.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HOU -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-7 points
26.7%
HOU By 8-14 points
18.1%
MEM By 1-7 points
23.4%
MEM By 8-14 points
12.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
123
HOUSTON
Memphis
121.25
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
Houston
112
HOUSTON
Memphis
116
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rockets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Grizzlies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rockets (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.8
D
Sim
Grizzlies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 244.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 12, 2026
MEM @ HOU
101 - 132
Mar 27, 2026
HOU @ MEM
119 - 109
Jan 26, 2026
MEM @ HOU
99 - 108
Nov 5, 2025
HOU @ MEM
124 - 109
Jan 30, 2025
HOU @ MEM
119 - 120
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+19.9% more
Houston: 9.9
vs
Memphis: 7.9
Blocks (L5)
+103.6% more
Memphis: 6.8
vs
Houston: 3.4
Turnovers (L5)
+18.7% more
Memphis: 18.4
vs
Houston: 15.5
Assists (L5)
+16.3% more
Memphis: 27.5
vs
Houston: 23.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
123.0
119
MEM Score
121.3
120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.6 / 35.6
32.1 / 40.6
Assists
27.5 / 23.6
23.0 / 22.0
Blocks
6.8 / 3.4
6.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
49.2 / 46.9
51.6 / 43.3
Free Throw %
84.3 / 78.9
75.0 / 78.6
Rebounding
44.9 / 44.3
37.0 / 45.0
Steals
7.9 / 9.9
7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
18.4 / 15.5
11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
MEM
Advantage
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
HOU
MEM
HOU
ML
57%
59-44
61%
69-44
50%
41-41
59%
51-35
ATS
63%
65-38
62%
70-43
50%
41-41
59%
51-35
TTL
70%
71-31-1
51%
58-55
100%
82-0
100%
86-0
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