WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
34-11-5 | Road
4
OTTAWA
SENATORSOTT
26-20-4 | Home
5
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Charlie Lindgren
#79 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Artem Zub
#2 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren | None-None | 4.88 | 0.853 | -- |
| Artem Zub | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
4.88
GAA
--
0.853
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
100%
SENATORS
0%
CAPITALS
--
SENATORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
OTTAWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Ottawa)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around OTT -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OTT)
WSH By 1 goal
16.1%
WSH By 2-3 goals
15.6%
OTT By 1 goal
18.6%
OTT By 2-3 goals
21.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
2.33
WASHINGTON
Ottawa
2.62
OTTAWA
Simulated Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Ottawa
2
OTTAWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Senators
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Capitals
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Senators (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.3
D
Sim
Capitals (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 18, 2026
OTT @ WSH
1 - 4
Jan 1, 2026
WSH @ OTT
3 - 4
Oct 25, 2025
OTT @ WSH
7 - 1
Mar 3, 2025
OTT @ WSH
4 - 5
Jan 30, 2025
WSH @ OTT
4 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+25.1% more
Ottawa: 6.3
vs
Washington: 5.1
Hits (L5)
+23.5% more
Ottawa: 21.5
vs
Washington: 17.4
Faceoff % (L5)
+4.4%
Washington: 53.0%
vs
Ottawa: 48.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
2.3
4
OTT Score
2.6
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
17.7 / 19.2
14.0 / 5.0
Faceoff %
48.6 / 53.0
57.4 / 42.6
Hits
21.5 / 17.4
19.0 / 20.0
Power Play %
13.3 / 12.1
40.0 / 33.3
Shots on Goal
25.9 / 26.3
34.0 / 35.0
Takeaways
6.3 / 5.1
4.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OTT
WSH
OTT
WSH
ML
0%
0-3
100%
3-0
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
ATS
0%
0-3
100%
3-0
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
TTL
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
The Unexpected Cornerback the Steelers Regret Losing
Islanders Shuffle Defense Pairings in Wake of Romanov's ACL Tear
Islanders' Blue Line Shake-Up: Three Defenders Who Must Elevate …
Ovechkin's Sons Steal the Show at Capitals' Home Opener as Washi…
Ovechkin's Sons Steal the Show as Capitals Clip Penguins 5-3 in …