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DETROIT

PISTONSDET

23-23  |  Road

119
FINAL
Wed, Jan 29 • 7:00 PM ET
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

PACERSIND

25-20  |  Home

133
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
100%
📊
PACERS
0%
PISTONS --
PACERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
228.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Indiana)
PistonsDET (-3.5) 0 PacersIND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pistons Cover

47.1%

Pacers Cover

52.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IND -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)

DET By 1-7 points

24.6%

DET By 8-14 points

14.1%

IND By 1-7 points

26.0%

IND By 8-14 points

16.5%

AI Model Projected Score
113.66
DETROIT
114.4
INDIANA
Simulated Score
112
DETROIT
116
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pacers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pacers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pacers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -0.7
D
Sim Pacers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 228.1
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 DET @ IND 133 - 121
Jan 17, 2026 IND @ DET 78 - 121
Nov 24, 2025 DET @ IND 122 - 117
Nov 17, 2025 IND @ DET 112 - 127
Jan 29, 2025 DET @ IND 119 - 133
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +35.5% more
Indiana: 10.7 vs Detroit: 7.9
Assists (L5) +29.7% more
Indiana: 30.7 vs Detroit: 23.7
Blocks (L5) +8.5% more
Indiana: 5.8 vs Detroit: 5.3
Field Goal % (L5) +5.1%
Indiana: 49.5% vs Detroit: 44.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 113.7 119
IND Score 114.4 133
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.7 / 33.8 50.0 / 35.3
Assists 30.7 / 23.7 28.0 / 26.0
Blocks 5.8 / 5.3 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 49.5 / 44.4 56.8 / 49.4
Free Throw % 79.3 / 77.4 71.0 / 73.1
Rebounding 43.5 / 45.8 36.0 / 41.0
Steals 10.7 / 7.9 7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.0 / 15.0 13.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET Advantage
67-29-0 (69.8%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET Advantage
50-46-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
IND
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6% Total +/-: -0.8
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
DET
IND
DET
ML
48% 47-50
55% 64-53
54% 45-38
49% 47-49
ATS
59% 57-40
53% 60-54-3
54% 45-38
49% 47-49
TTL
54% 52-45
60% 70-46-1
100% 83-0
100% 96-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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