Home / NBA Projections NBA / Cavaliers @ Heat CLE @ MIA

CLEVELAND

CAVALIERSCLE

37-9  |  Road

126
FINAL
Wed, Jan 29 • 7:30 PM ET
Kaseya Center
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

HEATMIA

23-22  |  Home

106
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
100%
📊
HEAT
0%
CAVALIERS --
HEAT --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.3
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.3 points (Miami)
CavaliersCLE (-3.5) 0 HeatMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cavaliers Cover

26.5%

Heat Cover

73.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -6.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

CLE By 1-7 points

16.5%

CLE By 8-14 points

6.5%

MIA By 1-7 points

26.7%

MIA By 8-14 points

24.6%

AI Model Projected Score
109.77
CLEVELAND
116.05
MIAMI
Simulated Score
99
CLEVELAND
113
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Heat Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Heat Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Heat (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.3
D
Sim Heat (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 225.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 212.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 27, 2026 MIA @ CLE 128 - 149
Mar 25, 2026 MIA @ CLE 120 - 103
Nov 12, 2025 CLE @ MIA 130 - 116
Nov 10, 2025 CLE @ MIA 138 - 140
Apr 28, 2025 CLE @ MIA 138 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +35.7% more
Miami: 16.0 vs Cleveland: 11.8
Free Throw % (L5) +5.2%
Miami: 82.1% vs Cleveland: 76.9%
Blocks (L5) +15.4% more
Cleveland: 4.2 vs Miami: 3.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 109.8 126
MIA Score 116.1 106
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.4 / 36.3 34.9 / 31.0
Assists 28.6 / 28.0 27.0 / 29.0
Blocks 3.6 / 4.2 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.8 / 46.7 47.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 82.1 / 76.9 86.7 / 83.3
Rebounding 46.3 / 45.9 35.0 / 47.0
Steals 6.9 / 6.5 4.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 16.0 / 11.8 14.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
96%MONEY4%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE Advantage
60-40-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
MIA
43-40-0 (51.8%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
40-60-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
MIA Advantage
47-36-0 (56.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0% Total +/-: +0.9
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
CLE
MIA
CLE
ML
48% 46-50
60% 69-46
59% 48-34
56% 55-44
ATS
51% 49-47
67% 75-37-3
59% 48-34
56% 55-44
TTL
59% 57-39
59% 68-47
100% 82-0
100% 99-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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