HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
31-14 | Road
100
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
22-24 | Home
96
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
100%
HAWKS
0%
ROCKETS
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ATL -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
HOU By 1-7 points
24.2%
HOU By 8-14 points
13.6%
ATL By 1-7 points
26.3%
ATL By 8-14 points
17.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
114.69
HOUSTON
Atlanta
115.78
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Houston
118
HOUSTON
Atlanta
109
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hawks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.1
D
Sim
Rockets (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 230.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 20, 2026
ATL @ HOU
95 - 117
Jan 29, 2026
HOU @ ATL
104 - 86
Oct 16, 2025
HOU @ ATL
133 - 115
Oct 6, 2025
ATL @ HOU
113 - 122
Mar 25, 2025
ATL @ HOU
114 - 121
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+54.2% more
Atlanta: 19.8
vs
Houston: 12.8
Steals (L5)
+30.1% more
Atlanta: 11.4
vs
Houston: 8.8
Blocks (L5)
+29.9% more
Atlanta: 4.0
vs
Houston: 3.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+12.0%
Houston: 41.8%
vs
Atlanta: 29.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
114.7
100
ATL Score
115.8
96
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.8 / 41.8
23.4 / 23.3
Assists
26.3 / 25.9
19.0 / 19.0
Blocks
4.0 / 3.0
5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
41.9 / 47.0
40.4 / 46.8
Free Throw %
71.0 / 70.8
81.3 / 95.0
Rebounding
45.7 / 44.5
40.0 / 44.0
Steals
11.4 / 8.8
11.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
19.8 / 12.8
18.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
ATL
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
HOU
ATL
HOU
ML
50%
52-52
61%
69-44
55%
48-40
59%
51-35
ATS
53%
55-48-1
62%
70-43
55%
48-40
59%
51-35
TTL
53%
55-48-1
51%
58-55
100%
88-0
100%
86-0
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