BOSTON
BRUINSBOS
25-20-6 | Road
2
BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
18-26-5 | Home
7
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Jeremy Swayman
#1 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
#1 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Swayman | None-None | 6.02 | 0.813 | -- |
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | None-None | 2.00 | 0.926 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
6.02
GAA
Ldr 2.00
0.813
Save %
Ldr 0.926
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
BRUINS
0%
SABRES
100%
BRUINS
--
SABRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around BOS -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
BOS By 1 goal
18.9%
BOS By 2-3 goals
22.9%
BUF By 1 goal
15.6%
BUF By 2-3 goals
14.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
2.85
BOSTON
Buffalo
2.46
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
Boston
5
BOSTON
Buffalo
3
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bruins
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bruins
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bruins (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.4
D
Sim
Bruins (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 1, 2026
BUF @ BOS
4 - 1
Apr 28, 2026
BOS @ BUF
2 - 1
Apr 26, 2026
BUF @ BOS
6 - 1
Apr 23, 2026
BUF @ BOS
3 - 1
Apr 21, 2026
BOS @ BUF
4 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+45.7% more
Boston: 19.7
vs
Buffalo: 10.7
Takeaways (L5)
+43.0% more
Boston: 7.5
vs
Buffalo: 4.3
Hits (L5)
+10.1% more
Boston: 24.8
vs
Buffalo: 22.3
Shots on Goal (L5)
+51.6% more
Buffalo: 34.1
vs
Boston: 22.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
2.9
2
BUF Score
2.5
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
10.7 / 19.7
17.0 / 14.0
Faceoff %
51.0 / 48.6
46.2 / 53.8
Hits
22.3 / 24.8
20.0 / 17.0
Power Play %
6.6 / 7.8
33.3 / 50.0
Shots on Goal
34.1 / 22.5
33.0 / 27.0
Takeaways
4.3 / 7.5
3.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
BOS
BUF
BOS
ML
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
ATS
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
100%
3-0
50%
2-2
TTL
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
0%
0-4
Contextual Game News
Bruins Look to Fix Special Teams as Senators Come to Town
Jiri Kulich's Emotional Game-Winner Lifts Sabres Over Blackhawks…
Kaprizov's Two Goals Propel Wild Past Bruins 4-1
Wild Aim to Stay Perfect at Home Against Bruins; Newcomers Shine…
Peterka's Overtime Heroics Lift Bruins Over Jets in Season Opener