WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
33-11-5 | Road
3
CALGARY
FLAMESCGY
24-17-7 | Home
1
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Logan Thompson
#48 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Dustin Wolf
#32 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson | None-None | 1.00 | 0.970 | -- |
| Dustin Wolf | None-None | 3.17 | 0.870 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
1.00 Ldr
GAA
3.17
0.970 Ldr
Save %
0.870
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
0%
FLAMES
100%
CAPITALS
--
FLAMES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around WSH -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
WSH By 1 goal
19.6%
WSH By 2-3 goals
31.9%
CGY By 1 goal
10.7%
CGY By 2-3 goals
7.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
3.21
WASHINGTON
Calgary
1.97
CALGARY
Simulated Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Calgary
4
CALGARY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Capitals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Flames
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Capitals (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.2
D
Sim
Flames (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 9, 2026
CGY @ WSH
3 - 7
Jan 23, 2026
WSH @ CGY
3 - 1
Feb 25, 2025
CGY @ WSH
3 - 1
Jan 28, 2025
WSH @ CGY
3 - 1
Mar 18, 2024
WSH @ CGY
5 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+25.5% more
Washington: 17.8
vs
Calgary: 13.2
Shots on Goal (L5)
+8.5% more
Washington: 27.9
vs
Calgary: 25.6
Faceoff % (L5)
+5.8%
Washington: 54.4%
vs
Calgary: 48.7%
Hits (L5)
+75.1% more
Calgary: 26.4
vs
Washington: 15.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
3.2
3
CGY Score
2.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
13.2 / 17.8
12.0 / 22.0
Faceoff %
48.7 / 54.4
50.0 / 50.0
Hits
26.4 / 15.1
15.0 / 22.0
Power Play %
32.1 / 5.6
20.0 / 25.0
Shots on Goal
25.6 / 27.9
33.0 / 23.0
Takeaways
5.2 / 4.1
7.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CGY
WSH
CGY
WSH
ML
33%
1-2
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
ATS
33%
1-2
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
TTL
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
0%
0-3
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
Ovechkin's Sons Steal the Show at Capitals' Home Opener as Washi…
Ovechkin's Sons Steal the Show as Capitals Clip Penguins 5-3 in …
Penguins Embarrassed by Capitals as Turnovers and Disorganizatio…
Flames Promote Aydar Suniev and Jonathan Castagna to Fill Roster…
Alexander Ovechkin to Retire After 2026-27 Season: A Look at His…