HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
30-14 | Road
114
BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
32-14 | Home
112
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
100%
CELTICS
0%
ROCKETS
--
CELTICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
234.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.2
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.2 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOS -9.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
HOU By 1-7 points
11.9%
HOU By 8-14 points
3.9%
BOS By 1-7 points
24.0%
BOS By 8-14 points
26.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
112.73
HOUSTON
Boston
121.92
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Houston
92
HOUSTON
Boston
107
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Celtics
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Celtics
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Celtics (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.2
D
Sim
Celtics (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 234.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 199.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 4, 2026
BOS @ HOU
114 - 93
Nov 1, 2025
HOU @ BOS
128 - 101
Jan 27, 2025
HOU @ BOS
114 - 112
Jan 3, 2025
BOS @ HOU
109 - 86
Jan 21, 2024
BOS @ HOU
116 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+38.3% more
Boston: 5.6
vs
Houston: 4.1
Assists (L5)
+13.2% more
Boston: 27.6
vs
Houston: 24.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.3%
Boston: 75.8%
vs
Houston: 70.5%
Turnovers (L5)
+38.2% more
Houston: 15.2
vs
Boston: 9.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
112.7
114
BOS Score
121.9
112
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.9 / 41.9
38.5 / 41.5
Assists
27.6 / 24.4
21.0 / 29.0
Blocks
5.6 / 4.1
4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
43.4 / 48.2
48.8 / 44.6
Free Throw %
75.8 / 70.5
95.0 / 71.4
Rebounding
45.4 / 47.2
41.0 / 39.0
Steals
6.6 / 9.7
4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
9.4 / 15.2
15.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
HOU
BOS
HOU
ML
57%
61-46
61%
69-44
53%
47-41
59%
51-35
ATS
59%
61-43-3
62%
70-43
53%
47-41
59%
51-35
TTL
56%
60-47
51%
58-55
100%
88-0
100%
86-0
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