Home / NBA Projections NBA / Celtics @ Mavericks BOS @ DAL

BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

31-14  |  Road

122
FINAL
Sat, Jan 25 • 5:30 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

24-21  |  Home

107
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
100%
📊
MAVERICKS
0%
CELTICS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
220.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.9
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.9 points (Dallas)
CelticsBOS (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Celtics Cover

34.8%

Mavericks Cover

65.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAL -3.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

BOS By 1-7 points

20.3%

BOS By 8-14 points

9.4%

DAL By 1-7 points

27.4%

DAL By 8-14 points

21.5%

AI Model Projected Score
108.04
BOSTON
111.96
DALLAS
Simulated Score
112
BOSTON
101
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mavericks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Celtics Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mavericks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.9
D
Sim Celtics (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 213.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 6, 2026 DAL @ BOS 100 - 120
Feb 3, 2026 BOS @ DAL 110 - 100
Feb 6, 2025 DAL @ BOS 127 - 120
Jan 25, 2025 BOS @ DAL 122 - 107
Jun 17, 2024 DAL @ BOS 88 - 106
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +43.0% more
Dallas: 16.6 vs Boston: 11.6
Steals (L5) +8.8% more
Dallas: 8.5 vs Boston: 7.8
Field Goal % (L5) +5.1%
Dallas: 48.9% vs Boston: 43.8%
Free Throw % (L5) +3.4%
Dallas: 80.3% vs Boston: 76.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 108.0 122
DAL Score 112.0 107
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.5 / 36.1 36.4 / 38.5
Assists 24.2 / 24.9 18.0 / 33.0
Blocks 4.7 / 6.0 8.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 48.9 / 43.8 44.3 / 42.7
Free Throw % 80.3 / 76.9 75.0 / 73.7
Rebounding 42.7 / 42.6 49.0 / 51.0
Steals 8.5 / 7.8 2.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 16.6 / 11.6 13.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
88%MONEY12%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
BOS
DAL
BOS
ML
62% 63-39
57% 61-46
54% 44-37
53% 47-41
ATS
67% 68-34
59% 61-43-3
54% 44-37
53% 47-41
TTL
59% 60-41-1
56% 60-47
100% 81-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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