Home / NBA Projections NBA / Heat @ Nets MIA @ BKN

MIAMI

HEATMIA

21-22  |  Road

106
FINAL
Sat, Jan 25 • 6:00 PM ET
Barclays Center
View Odds Details →

BROOKLYN

NETSBKN

14-31  |  Home

97
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
0%
📊
NETS
100%
HEAT --
NETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
203.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Miami)
HeatMIA (-3.5) 0 NetsBKN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Heat Cover

55.8%

Nets Cover

44.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

MIA By 1-7 points

26.5%

MIA By 8-14 points

17.7%

BKN By 1-7 points

23.7%

BKN By 8-14 points

13.0%

AI Model Projected Score
102.36
MIAMI
100.91
BROOKLYN
Simulated Score
104
MIAMI
111
BROOKLYN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Heat Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Heat (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.5
D
Sim Nets (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 203.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 215.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 BKN @ MIA 110 - 126
Mar 3, 2026 BKN @ MIA 98 - 124
Dec 18, 2025 MIA @ BKN 106 - 95
Feb 7, 2025 MIA @ BKN 86 - 102
Jan 25, 2025 MIA @ BKN 106 - 97
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +23.4% more
Miami: 27.7 vs Brooklyn: 21.2
Free Throw % (L5) +15.5%
Miami: 86.9% vs Brooklyn: 71.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.0%
Miami: 33.5% vs Brooklyn: 27.5%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.5%
Miami: 44.0% vs Brooklyn: 39.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 102.4 106
BKN Score 100.9 97
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.5 / 33.5 35.0 / 46.4
Assists 21.2 / 27.7 23.0 / 22.0
Blocks 4.0 / 3.5 5.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 39.5 / 44.0 37.5 / 44.3
Free Throw % 71.4 / 86.9 88.5 / 95.8
Rebounding 46.8 / 46.5 35.0 / 51.0
Steals 6.5 / 4.2 11.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 16.9 / 11.4 15.0 / 22.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
43-40-0 (51.8%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
BKN
20-62-0 (24.4%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
47-36-0 (56.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
BKN
38-43-1 (46.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4% Total +/-: +3.0
BKN
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BKN
MIA
BKN
MIA
ML
53% 50-45
48% 46-50
59% 48-34
59% 48-34
ATS
52% 48-44-3
51% 49-47
59% 48-34
59% 48-34
TTL
57% 54-41
59% 57-39
100% 82-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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