DETROIT
PISTONSDET
23-21 | Road
113
ORLANDO
MAGICORL
23-23 | Home
121
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
100%
MAGIC
0%
PISTONS
--
MAGIC
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
208.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
ORLANDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Orlando)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ORL -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORL)
DET By 1-7 points
15.4%
DET By 8-14 points
5.8%
ORL By 1-7 points
26.2%
ORL By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
100.85
DETROIT
Orlando
107.81
ORLANDO
Simulated Score
Detroit
116
DETROIT
Orlando
112
ORLANDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Magic
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pistons
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Magic (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Pistons (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 208.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 3, 2026
ORL @ DET
94 - 116
May 1, 2026
DET @ ORL
93 - 79
Apr 29, 2026
ORL @ DET
109 - 116
Apr 27, 2026
DET @ ORL
88 - 94
Apr 25, 2026
DET @ ORL
105 - 113
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+11.7% more
Orlando: 8.6
vs
Detroit: 7.7
Blocks (L5)
+28.2% more
Detroit: 6.5
vs
Orlando: 4.6
Assists (L5)
+18.7% more
Detroit: 24.2
vs
Orlando: 19.7
Turnovers (L5)
+15.5% more
Detroit: 18.2
vs
Orlando: 15.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
100.9
113
ORL Score
107.8
121
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
25.9 / 35.2
45.5 / 40.0
Assists
19.7 / 24.2
22.0 / 22.0
Blocks
4.6 / 6.5
4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
38.3 / 47.9
48.2 / 46.5
Free Throw %
70.7 / 85.4
68.4 / 82.1
Rebounding
42.4 / 48.7
40.0 / 41.0
Steals
8.6 / 7.7
8.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
15.4 / 18.2
15.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
ORL
49-42-0
(53.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
ORL
43-48-0
(47.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORL
DET
ORL
DET
ML
61%
65-42
55%
64-53
56%
51-40
49%
47-49
ATS
64%
68-38-1
53%
60-54-3
56%
51-40
49%
47-49
TTL
57%
61-46
60%
70-46-1
100%
91-0
100%
96-0
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