HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
29-14 | Road
135
CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
36-8 | Home
131
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
100%
CAVALIERS
0%
ROCKETS
--
CAVALIERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
238.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.8
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.8 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CLE -4.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
HOU By 1-7 points
18.9%
HOU By 8-14 points
8.3%
CLE By 1-7 points
27.3%
CLE By 8-14 points
22.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
116.87
HOUSTON
Cleveland
121.65
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Houston
105
HOUSTON
Cleveland
112
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cavaliers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.8
D
Sim
Cavaliers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 238.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 27, 2025
CLE @ HOU
100 - 117
Nov 19, 2025
HOU @ CLE
114 - 104
Jan 25, 2025
HOU @ CLE
135 - 131
Jan 22, 2025
CLE @ HOU
108 - 109
Mar 16, 2024
CLE @ HOU
103 - 117
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+18.9% more
Cleveland: 28.0
vs
Houston: 23.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.7%
Cleveland: 75.9%
vs
Houston: 70.3%
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.5%
Cleveland: 46.3%
vs
Houston: 44.8%
Steals (L5)
+26.0% more
Houston: 12.0
vs
Cleveland: 8.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
116.9
135
CLE Score
121.7
131
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.3 / 39.6
43.6 / 46.4
Assists
28.0 / 23.6
28.0 / 26.0
Blocks
4.0 / 4.1
5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.3 / 44.8
51.6 / 54.9
Free Throw %
75.9 / 70.3
76.9 / 71.1
Rebounding
43.6 / 48.3
40.0 / 45.0
Steals
8.9 / 12.0
4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
13.5 / 17.3
11.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
CLE
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
Advantage
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
HOU
CLE
HOU
ML
60%
69-46
61%
69-44
56%
55-44
59%
51-35
ATS
67%
75-37-3
62%
70-43
56%
55-44
59%
51-35
TTL
59%
68-47
51%
58-55
100%
99-0
100%
86-0
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