TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
12-32 | Road
117
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
22-22 | Home
94
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
100%
HAWKS
0%
RAPTORS
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
222.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.6
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.6 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ATL -6.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
TOR By 1-7 points
16.0%
TOR By 8-14 points
6.2%
ATL By 1-7 points
26.5%
ATL By 8-14 points
24.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
107.85
TORONTO
Atlanta
114.42
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Toronto
103
TORONTO
Atlanta
110
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hawks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.6
D
Sim
Hawks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 222.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 213.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 5, 2026
ATL @ TOR
100 - 118
Jan 3, 2026
ATL @ TOR
117 - 134
Nov 7, 2025
TOR @ ATL
109 - 97
Oct 22, 2025
TOR @ ATL
138 - 118
Jan 25, 2025
TOR @ ATL
117 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+46.0% more
Atlanta: 11.2
vs
Toronto: 7.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.9%
Atlanta: 75.7%
vs
Toronto: 70.8%
Assists (L5)
+11.7% more
Toronto: 30.8
vs
Atlanta: 27.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.7%
Toronto: 41.0%
vs
Atlanta: 31.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
107.9
117
ATL Score
114.4
94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.3 / 41.0
29.7 / 36.7
Assists
27.2 / 30.8
28.0 / 31.0
Blocks
4.1 / 4.0
5.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
44.9 / 52.8
39.3 / 46.7
Free Throw %
75.7 / 70.8
68.0 / 88.0
Rebounding
43.1 / 42.3
43.0 / 51.0
Steals
11.2 / 7.7
14.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
15.9 / 15.3
24.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
Advantage
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
ATL
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
TOR
ATL
TOR
ML
50%
52-52
55%
57-47
55%
48-40
55%
48-39
ATS
53%
55-48-1
61%
62-40-2
55%
48-40
55%
48-39
TTL
53%
55-48-1
60%
62-42
100%
88-0
100%
87-0
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