PORTLAND
TRAIL BLAZERSPOR
16-28 | Road
102
CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
11-29 | Home
97
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
HORNETS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS
--
HORNETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
218.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
CHARLOTTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Charlotte)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CHA -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHA)
POR By 1-7 points
23.5%
POR By 8-14 points
12.7%
CHA By 1-7 points
26.7%
CHA By 8-14 points
18.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Portland
108.4
PORTLAND
Charlotte
110.06
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
Portland
118
PORTLAND
Charlotte
112
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hornets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Trail Blazers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hornets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.7
D
Sim
Trail Blazers (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 218.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 10, 2026
CHA @ POR
103 - 101
Feb 28, 2026
POR @ CHA
93 - 109
Feb 22, 2025
CHA @ POR
88 - 141
Jan 24, 2025
POR @ CHA
102 - 97
Apr 3, 2024
POR @ CHA
89 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+12.5% more
Charlotte: 26.7
vs
Portland: 23.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.0%
Charlotte: 78.7%
vs
Portland: 70.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.8%
Charlotte: 36.7%
vs
Portland: 32.9%
Blocks (L5)
+40.7% more
Portland: 7.7
vs
Charlotte: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
POR Score
108.4
102
CHA Score
110.1
97
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.7 / 32.9
29.0 / 28.9
Assists
26.7 / 23.7
20.0 / 17.0
Blocks
4.6 / 7.7
6.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
45.9 / 47.1
37.6 / 40.5
Free Throw %
78.7 / 70.6
85.7 / 69.2
Rebounding
43.1 / 43.9
46.0 / 47.0
Steals
8.9 / 8.5
9.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
14.9 / 14.5
16.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR
44-44-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
CHA
Advantage
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.0
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHA
POR
CHA
POR
ML
61%
60-39
53%
56-49
48%
40-44
55%
49-40
ATS
60%
59-40
62%
65-39-1
48%
40-44
55%
49-40
TTL
58%
57-42
56%
58-46-1
100%
84-0
100%
89-0
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