TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
11-32 | Road
122
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
22-21 | Home
119
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
100%
HAWKS
0%
RAPTORS
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
220.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.6
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.6 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ATL -6.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
TOR By 1-7 points
15.9%
TOR By 8-14 points
6.2%
ATL By 1-7 points
26.5%
ATL By 8-14 points
25.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
107.08
TORONTO
Atlanta
113.71
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Toronto
114
TORONTO
Atlanta
108
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Raptors
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hawks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.6
D
Sim
Raptors (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 220.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 222.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 5, 2026
ATL @ TOR
100 - 118
Jan 3, 2026
ATL @ TOR
117 - 134
Nov 7, 2025
TOR @ ATL
109 - 97
Oct 22, 2025
TOR @ ATL
138 - 118
Jan 25, 2025
TOR @ ATL
117 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+73.4% more
Atlanta: 11.3
vs
Toronto: 6.5
Turnovers (L5)
+26.4% more
Atlanta: 16.4
vs
Toronto: 13.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.3%
Atlanta: 76.9%
vs
Toronto: 66.6%
Assists (L5)
+14.5% more
Toronto: 30.2
vs
Atlanta: 25.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
107.1
122
ATL Score
113.7
119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.4 / 40.0
35.1 / 42.9
Assists
25.8 / 30.2
30.0 / 32.0
Blocks
5.2 / 5.0
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
43.2 / 50.2
48.3 / 58.0
Free Throw %
76.9 / 66.6
73.3 / 79.2
Rebounding
46.7 / 44.0
36.0 / 39.0
Steals
11.3 / 6.5
11.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
16.4 / 13.0
15.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
Advantage
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
ATL
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
TOR
ATL
TOR
ML
50%
52-52
55%
57-47
55%
48-40
55%
48-39
ATS
53%
55-48-1
61%
62-40-2
55%
48-40
55%
48-39
TTL
53%
55-48-1
60%
62-42
100%
88-0
100%
87-0
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