Home / NBA Projections NBA / Kings @ Nuggets SAC @ DEN

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

23-20  |  Road

123
FINAL
Thu, Jan 23 • 9:00 PM ET
Ball Arena
View Odds Details →

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

27-16  |  Home

132
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
0%
📊
NUGGETS
100%
KINGS --
NUGGETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
245.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Sacramento)
KingsSAC (-3.5) 0 NuggetsDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kings Cover

53.4%

Nuggets Cover

46.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SAC -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

SAC By 1-7 points

26.1%

SAC By 8-14 points

16.7%

DEN By 1-7 points

24.4%

DEN By 8-14 points

13.9%

AI Model Projected Score
123
SACRAMENTO
122.14
DENVER
Simulated Score
105
SACRAMENTO
112
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Kings Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nuggets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Kings (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.9
D
Sim Nuggets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 245.1
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 11, 2025 DEN @ SAC 136 - 105
Nov 22, 2025 SAC @ DEN 128 - 123
Nov 11, 2025 DEN @ SAC 122 - 108
Nov 3, 2025 SAC @ DEN 124 - 130
Apr 9, 2025 DEN @ SAC 124 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +23.0% more
Sacramento: 8.4 vs Denver: 6.5
Turnovers (L5) +48.0% more
Denver: 15.3 vs Sacramento: 10.3
Assists (L5) +14.5% more
Denver: 31.3 vs Sacramento: 27.3
Rebounding (L5) +8.8% more
Denver: 49.2 vs Sacramento: 45.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 123.0 123
DEN Score 122.1 132
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.8 / 36.5 35.1 / 36.6
Assists 31.3 / 27.3 30.0 / 31.0
Blocks 5.1 / 5.2 8.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 55.2 / 48.6 48.5 / 43.9
Free Throw % 85.6 / 86.5 67.7 / 73.7
Rebounding 49.2 / 45.2 56.0 / 53.0
Steals 6.5 / 8.4 10.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 15.3 / 10.3 11.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
DEN Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
SAC
DEN
SAC
ML
54% 57-48
55% 55-45
55% 47-39
61% 50-32
ATS
63% 65-38-2
54% 52-45-3
55% 47-39
61% 50-32
TTL
54% 56-48-1
58% 57-42-1
100% 86-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Tyler Kolek's Girlfriend Spills: Knicks Parade Police Mix-Up Hap…
nypost 22 minutes ago
Donovan Mitchell Sounds Off on Ring Culture Disrespect Toward Ja…
yahoo 19 hours, 17 minutes ago
Caleb Wilson's Bulls Debut: Rookie Brings Bold Talk and Mixed Re…
chicago_suntimes 19 hours, 24 minutes ago
Mike Breen Issues Apology After LeBron James Shoots Down Embiid …
cbssports 1 day ago
Anonymous NBA Scout Shuts Down JJ Redick's Lakers Title Hopes wi…
bleacherreport 1 day, 6 hours ago