Home / NBA Projections NBA / Celtics @ Lakers BOS @ LAL

BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

31-13  |  Road

96
FINAL
Thu, Jan 23 • 10:00 PM ET
Crypto.com Arena
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

23-18  |  Home

117
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
0%
📊
LAKERS
100%
CELTICS --
LAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.2
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.2 points (Boston)
CelticsBOS (-3.5) 0 LakersLAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Celtics Cover

69.9%

Lakers Cover

30.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BOS -5.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

BOS By 1-7 points

27.2%

BOS By 8-14 points

23.3%

LAL By 1-7 points

18.2%

LAL By 8-14 points

7.7%

AI Model Projected Score
115.09
BOSTON
109.87
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
112
BOSTON
116
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Celtics Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lakers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Celtics (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.2
D
Sim Lakers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 22, 2026 BOS @ LAL 111 - 89
Dec 5, 2025 LAL @ BOS 105 - 126
Mar 8, 2025 LAL @ BOS 101 - 111
Jan 23, 2025 BOS @ LAL 96 - 117
Feb 1, 2024 LAL @ BOS 114 - 105
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +26.5% more
Boston: 9.2 vs Los Angeles: 6.8
Turnovers (L5) +10.4% more
Boston: 13.9 vs Los Angeles: 12.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.9%
Boston: 37.1% vs Los Angeles: 34.2%
Free Throw % (L5) +2.8%
Boston: 81.9% vs Los Angeles: 79.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 115.1 96
LAL Score 109.9 117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.2 / 37.1 42.9 / 34.1
Assists 27.5 / 25.9 27.0 / 23.0
Blocks 7.0 / 5.9 3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 48.2 / 46.4 47.2 / 38.5
Free Throw % 79.2 / 81.9 90.0 / 66.7
Rebounding 40.3 / 42.8 53.0 / 42.0
Steals 6.8 / 9.2 4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 12.5 / 13.9 10.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
75%MONEY25%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
92%TICKETS8%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
LAL
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
LAL
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
BOS
LAL
BOS
ML
61% 68-43
57% 61-46
54% 49-42
53% 47-41
ATS
61% 67-43-1
59% 61-43-3
54% 49-42
53% 47-41
TTL
61% 66-43-2
56% 60-47
100% 91-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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