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BUFFALO

SABRESBUF

18-24-5  |  Road

2
FINAL
Thu, Jan 23 • 9:00 PM ET
Scotiabank Saddledome
View Odds Details →

CALGARY

FLAMESCGY

22-16-7  |  Home

5
Goaltending
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
GOALTENDER

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

#1 | Goaltender
@
Dustin Wolf
GOALTENDER

Dustin Wolf

#32 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen None-None 3.05 0.875 --
Dustin Wolf None-None 2.00 0.941 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
3.05 GAA Ldr 2.00
0.875 Save % Ldr 0.941
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
0%
📊
FLAMES
100%
SABRES --
FLAMES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Buffalo)
SabresBUF (-3.5) 0 FlamesCGY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sabres Cover

57.7%

Flames Cover

42.3%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around BUF -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

BUF By 1 goal

18.9%

BUF By 2-3 goals

22.9%

CGY By 1 goal

15.6%

CGY By 2-3 goals

14.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2.57
BUFFALO
2.18
CALGARY
Simulated Score
1
BUFFALO
3
CALGARY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Sabres Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Flames Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Sabres (-0) Loss
Proj Goals: -0.4
D
Sim Flames (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 4.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 4.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 8, 2025 BUF @ CGY 4 - 7
Nov 19, 2025 CGY @ BUF 6 - 2
Jan 23, 2025 BUF @ CGY 2 - 5
Nov 9, 2024 CGY @ BUF 2 - 3
Mar 24, 2024 BUF @ CGY 4 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +8.0% more
Buffalo: 29.1 vs Calgary: 26.7
Takeaways (L5) +45.2% more
Calgary: 4.9 vs Buffalo: 3.3
Blocked Shots (L5) +29.1% more
Calgary: 15.3 vs Buffalo: 11.9
Hits (L5) +18.2% more
Calgary: 21.9 vs Buffalo: 18.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUF Score 2.6 2
CGY Score 2.2 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 15.3 / 11.9 19.0 / 14.0
Faceoff % 47.0 / 47.3 38.8 / 61.2
Hits 21.9 / 18.5 19.0 / 20.0
Power Play % 2071.0 / 1473.0 0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 26.7 / 29.1 26.0 / 34.0
Takeaways 4.9 / 3.3 5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
86%MONEY14%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CGY
BUF
CGY
BUF
ML
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
ATS
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
100% 3-0
TTL
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
0% 0-3
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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