PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
20-21-8 | Road
1
ANAHEIM
DUCKSANA
18-23-6 | Home
5
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Owen Pickering
#38 | D@
GOALTENDER
Pavel Mintyukov
#98 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Pickering | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Pavel Mintyukov | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
--
--
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
0%
DUCKS
100%
PENGUINS
--
DUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around PIT -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
PIT By 1 goal
19.5%
PIT By 2-3 goals
26.1%
ANA By 1 goal
14.0%
ANA By 2-3 goals
12.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
2.58
PITTSBURGH
Anaheim
1.91
ANAHEIM
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Anaheim
5
ANAHEIM
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Penguins
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Ducks
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Penguins (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.7
D
Sim
Ducks (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 4.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 9, 2025
ANA @ PIT
4 - 3
Oct 14, 2025
PIT @ ANA
3 - 4
Jan 23, 2025
PIT @ ANA
1 - 5
Oct 31, 2024
ANA @ PIT
1 - 2
Nov 7, 2023
PIT @ ANA
2 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+34.5%
Pittsburgh: 52.6%
vs
Anaheim: 18.1%
Takeaways (L5)
+29.7% more
Pittsburgh: 5.1
vs
Anaheim: 3.6
Faceoff % (L5)
+6.5%
Pittsburgh: 52.2%
vs
Anaheim: 45.7%
Hits (L5)
+29.1% more
Anaheim: 20.8
vs
Pittsburgh: 16.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
2.6
1
ANA Score
1.9
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
16.4 / 14.3
17.0 / 10.0
Faceoff %
45.7 / 52.2
42.6 / 57.4
Hits
20.8 / 16.1
20.0 / 12.0
Power Play %
18.1 / 52.6
0.0 / 33.3
Shots on Goal
29.5 / 26.6
34.0 / 32.0
Takeaways
3.6 / 5.1
11.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ANA
PIT
ANA
PIT
ML
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
ATS
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
TTL
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
0%
0-3
50%
2-2
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