DETROIT
PISTONSDET
22-21 | Road
114
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
22-20 | Home
104
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
100%
HAWKS
0%
PISTONS
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
233.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.6
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.6 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ATL -6.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
DET By 1-7 points
15.9%
DET By 8-14 points
6.2%
ATL By 1-7 points
26.5%
ATL By 8-14 points
25.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
113.37
DETROIT
Atlanta
120
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Detroit
107
DETROIT
Atlanta
115
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hawks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.6
D
Sim
Hawks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 233.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 222.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 25, 2026
ATL @ DET
130 - 129
Dec 12, 2025
ATL @ DET
115 - 142
Dec 1, 2025
ATL @ DET
98 - 99
Nov 18, 2025
DET @ ATL
120 - 112
Feb 23, 2025
DET @ ATL
148 - 143
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+34.8% more
Atlanta: 6.3
vs
Detroit: 4.7
Steals (L5)
+23.8% more
Atlanta: 9.9
vs
Detroit: 8.0
Assists (L5)
+14.7% more
Atlanta: 26.2
vs
Detroit: 22.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.7%
Detroit: 80.7%
vs
Atlanta: 77.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
113.4
114
ATL Score
120.0
104
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.2 / 35.1
15.8 / 35.3
Assists
26.2 / 22.8
25.0 / 27.0
Blocks
6.3 / 4.7
3.0 / 10.0
Field Goal %
45.9 / 46.8
37.9 / 50.0
Free Throw %
77.0 / 80.7
76.9 / 94.7
Rebounding
46.5 / 47.6
47.0 / 51.0
Steals
9.9 / 8.0
14.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
17.6 / 16.9
14.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
ATL
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
DET
ATL
DET
ML
50%
52-52
55%
64-53
55%
48-40
49%
47-49
ATS
53%
55-48-1
53%
60-54-3
55%
48-40
49%
47-49
TTL
53%
55-48-1
60%
70-46-1
100%
88-0
100%
96-0
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