Home / NBA Projections NBA / Cavaliers @ Rockets CLE @ HOU

CLEVELAND

CAVALIERSCLE

36-6  |  Road

108
FINAL
Wed, Jan 22 • 8:00 PM ET
Toyota Center
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

28-14  |  Home

109
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
0%
📊
ROCKETS
100%
CAVALIERS --
ROCKETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
235.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.5
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.5 points (Cleveland)
CavaliersCLE (-3.5) 0 RocketsHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cavaliers Cover

77.2%

Rockets Cover

22.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CLE -7.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

CLE By 1-7 points

25.8%

CLE By 8-14 points

25.8%

HOU By 1-7 points

14.6%

HOU By 8-14 points

5.3%

AI Model Projected Score
121.27
CLEVELAND
113.8
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
98
CLEVELAND
104
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cavaliers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cavaliers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.5
D
Sim Rockets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 235.1
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 202.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 27, 2025 CLE @ HOU 100 - 117
Nov 19, 2025 HOU @ CLE 114 - 104
Jan 25, 2025 HOU @ CLE 135 - 131
Jan 22, 2025 CLE @ HOU 108 - 109
Mar 16, 2024 CLE @ HOU 103 - 117
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +18.5% more
Cleveland: 28.1 vs Houston: 22.9
Free Throw % (L5) +11.0%
Cleveland: 81.3% vs Houston: 70.4%
Steals (L5) +115.2% more
Houston: 14.0 vs Cleveland: 6.5
Blocks (L5) +32.7% more
Houston: 3.7 vs Cleveland: 2.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 121.3 108
HOU Score 113.8 109
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.4 / 36.6 44.1 / 31.7
Assists 22.9 / 28.1 25.0 / 25.0
Blocks 3.7 / 2.8 5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 45.3 / 45.6 44.0 / 42.3
Free Throw % 70.4 / 81.3 70.0 / 68.4
Rebounding 46.0 / 47.7 53.0 / 45.0
Steals 14.0 / 6.5 8.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 15.0 / 11.8 22.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
60-40-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
HOU Advantage
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
40-60-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
HOU Advantage
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0% Total +/-: +0.9
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
CLE
HOU
CLE
ML
61% 69-44
60% 69-46
59% 51-35
56% 55-44
ATS
62% 70-43
67% 75-37-3
59% 51-35
56% 55-44
TTL
51% 58-55
59% 68-47
100% 86-0
100% 99-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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