CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
11-28 | Road
120
MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
28-15 | Home
132
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
0%
GRIZZLIES
100%
HORNETS
--
GRIZZLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.2
CHARLOTTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.2 points (Charlotte)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CHA -3.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHA)
CHA By 1-7 points
27.3%
CHA By 8-14 points
20.5%
MEM By 1-7 points
21.3%
MEM By 8-14 points
10.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Charlotte
116.66
CHARLOTTE
Memphis
113.44
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
Charlotte
114
CHARLOTTE
Memphis
117
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hornets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Grizzlies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hornets (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.2
D
Sim
Grizzlies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 230.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 21, 2026
MEM @ CHA
101 - 124
Jan 28, 2026
CHA @ MEM
112 - 97
Oct 15, 2025
MEM @ CHA
116 - 145
Apr 8, 2025
MEM @ CHA
124 - 100
Jan 22, 2025
CHA @ MEM
120 - 132
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+32.0% more
Charlotte: 4.9
vs
Memphis: 3.3
Turnovers (L5)
+11.9% more
Charlotte: 14.3
vs
Memphis: 12.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.9%
Charlotte: 37.3%
vs
Memphis: 34.4%
Free Throw % (L5)
+1.8%
Charlotte: 75.8%
vs
Memphis: 74.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHA Score
116.7
120
MEM Score
113.4
132
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.4 / 37.3
44.7 / 35.5
Assists
25.6 / 26.5
36.0 / 27.0
Blocks
3.3 / 4.9
6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
48.8 / 45.0
50.0 / 47.7
Free Throw %
74.0 / 75.8
92.9 / 84.4
Rebounding
44.9 / 48.1
40.0 / 33.0
Steals
9.8 / 8.9
9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
12.6 / 14.3
16.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHA
Advantage
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
CHA
MEM
CHA
ML
57%
59-44
61%
60-39
50%
41-41
48%
40-44
ATS
63%
65-38
60%
59-40
50%
41-41
48%
40-44
TTL
70%
71-31-1
58%
57-42
100%
82-0
100%
84-0
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