PORTLAND
TRAIL BLAZERSPOR
14-28 | Road
116
MIAMI
HEATMIA
21-20 | Home
107
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
HEAT
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
213.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.2
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.2 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -13.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
POR By 1-7 points
6.6%
POR By 8-14 points
1.6%
MIA By 1-7 points
18.2%
MIA By 8-14 points
26.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Portland
99.87
PORTLAND
Miami
113.08
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Portland
124
PORTLAND
Miami
116
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Heat
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Trail Blazers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Heat (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.2
D
Sim
Trail Blazers (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 213.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 240.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 22, 2026
MIA @ POR
110 - 127
Nov 8, 2025
POR @ MIA
131 - 136
Jan 21, 2025
POR @ MIA
116 - 107
Jan 11, 2025
MIA @ POR
119 - 98
Mar 29, 2024
POR @ MIA
82 - 142
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+26.5% more
Miami: 29.9
vs
Portland: 23.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+13.5%
Miami: 92.4%
vs
Portland: 78.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.6%
Miami: 41.1%
vs
Portland: 32.5%
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.6%
Miami: 49.3%
vs
Portland: 44.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
POR Score
99.9
116
MIA Score
113.1
107
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.1 / 32.5
33.3 / 34.9
Assists
29.9 / 23.6
26.0 / 25.0
Blocks
4.2 / 5.8
3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
49.3 / 44.7
44.1 / 49.4
Free Throw %
92.4 / 78.9
91.7 / 65.2
Rebounding
44.7 / 43.9
45.0 / 47.0
Steals
6.3 / 7.2
2.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
12.5 / 17.4
10.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR
44-44-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.0
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
POR
MIA
POR
ML
48%
46-50
53%
56-49
59%
48-34
55%
49-40
ATS
51%
49-47
62%
65-39-1
59%
48-34
55%
49-40
TTL
59%
57-39
56%
58-46-1
100%
82-0
100%
89-0
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