PHILADELPHIA
76ERSPHI
15-26 | Road
109
DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
26-16 | Home
144
AI Model Win Probability
76ERS
100%
NUGGETS
0%
76ERS
--
NUGGETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
226.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
PHI By 1-7 points
22.8%
PHI By 8-14 points
11.9%
DEN By 1-7 points
26.9%
DEN By 8-14 points
18.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
111.92
PHILADELPHIA
Denver
114.08
DENVER
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
113
PHILADELPHIA
Denver
109
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
76ers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.2
D
Sim
76ers (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 226.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 222.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 17, 2026
PHI @ DEN
96 - 124
Jan 5, 2026
DEN @ PHI
125 - 124
Jan 31, 2025
DEN @ PHI
137 - 134
Jan 21, 2025
PHI @ DEN
109 - 144
Jan 27, 2024
PHI @ DEN
105 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+93.1% more
Denver: 5.6
vs
Philadelphia: 2.9
Turnovers (L5)
+37.2% more
Denver: 15.9
vs
Philadelphia: 11.6
Rebounding (L5)
+35.3% more
Denver: 48.3
vs
Philadelphia: 35.7
Assists (L5)
+15.8% more
Denver: 27.4
vs
Philadelphia: 23.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
111.9
109
DEN Score
114.1
144
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.4 / 34.3
51.6 / 39.5
Assists
27.4 / 23.7
39.0 / 34.0
Blocks
5.6 / 2.9
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
52.3 / 45.4
61.2 / 45.8
Free Throw %
80.5 / 77.9
96.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
48.3 / 35.7
51.0 / 25.0
Steals
6.2 / 7.0
7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
15.9 / 11.6
14.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
50-44-0
(53.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
Advantage
50-44-0
(53.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
DEN
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
44-50-0
O: 46.8% / U: 53.2%
Total +/-: +1.4
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
PHI
DEN
PHI
ML
54%
57-48
63%
69-40
55%
47-39
48%
45-48
ATS
63%
65-38-2
65%
71-38
55%
47-39
48%
45-48
TTL
54%
56-48-1
55%
60-49
100%
86-0
100%
93-0
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