WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
31-10-5 | Road
3
EDMONTON
OILERSEDM
29-14-3 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Logan Thompson
#48 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Ty Emberson
#49 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson | None-None | 2.01 | 0.938 | -- |
| Ty Emberson | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.01
GAA
--
0.938
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
100%
OILERS
0%
CAPITALS
--
OILERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.6
EDMONTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.6 points (Edmonton)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around EDM -2.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EDM)
WSH By 1 goal
4.1%
WSH By 2-3 goals
1.9%
EDM By 1 goal
14.5%
EDM By 2-3 goals
38.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
2.15
WASHINGTON
Edmonton
4.73
EDMONTON
Simulated Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Edmonton
5
EDMONTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Oilers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Oilers
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Oilers (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.6
D
Sim
Oilers (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 24, 2026
WSH @ EDM
5 - 6
Nov 19, 2025
EDM @ WSH
4 - 7
Feb 23, 2025
EDM @ WSH
3 - 7
Jan 21, 2025
WSH @ EDM
3 - 2
Mar 13, 2024
WSH @ EDM
2 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+39.7% more
Edmonton: 5.1
vs
Washington: 3.7
Power Play % (L5)
+23.6%
Edmonton: 42.5%
vs
Washington: 18.9%
Hits (L5)
+44.3% more
Washington: 21.0
vs
Edmonton: 11.7
Blocked Shots (L5)
+13.6% more
Washington: 17.6
vs
Edmonton: 15.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
2.2
3
EDM Score
4.7
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.2 / 17.6
5.0 / 18.0
Faceoff %
47.2 / 52.9
53.3 / 46.7
Hits
11.7 / 21.0
13.0 / 14.0
Power Play %
4252.0 / 1890.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
26.5 / 26.1
32.0 / 14.0
Takeaways
5.1 / 3.7
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EDM
WSH
EDM
WSH
ML
75%
3-1
100%
3-0
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
ATS
75%
3-1
100%
3-0
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
TTL
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
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