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BUFFALO

SABRESBUF

17-24-5  |  Road

3
FINAL
Tue, Jan 21 • 10:00 PM ET
Rogers Arena
View Odds Details →

VANCOUVER

CANUCKSVAN

20-15-10  |  Home

2
Goaltending
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
GOALTENDER

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

#1 | Goaltender
@
Thatcher Demko
GOALTENDER

Thatcher Demko

#35 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen None-None 2.00 0.941 --
Thatcher Demko None-None 3.09 0.885 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.00 Ldr GAA 3.09
0.941 Ldr Save % 0.885
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
100%
📊
CANUCKS
0%
SABRES --
CANUCKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
VANCOUVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Vancouver)
SabresBUF (-3.5) 0 CanucksVAN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sabres Cover

39.9%

Canucks Cover

60.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around VAN -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAN)

BUF By 1 goal

14.9%

BUF By 2-3 goals

13.5%

VAN By 1 goal

19.2%

VAN By 2-3 goals

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
2.4
BUFFALO
2.91
VANCOUVER
Simulated Score
4
BUFFALO
3
VANCOUVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Canucks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Sabres Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Canucks (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -0.5
D
Sim Sabres (-0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 5.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 6, 2026 VAN @ BUF 3 - 5
Dec 11, 2025 BUF @ VAN 3 - 2
Jan 21, 2025 BUF @ VAN 3 - 2
Nov 29, 2024 VAN @ BUF 4 - 3
Mar 19, 2024 BUF @ VAN 2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +27.5% more
Vancouver: 23.3 vs Buffalo: 18.3
Blocked Shots (L5) +15.6% more
Vancouver: 14.2 vs Buffalo: 12.3
Faceoff % (L5) +4.8%
Vancouver: 50.7% vs Buffalo: 45.9%
Shots on Goal (L5) +23.9% more
Buffalo: 30.6 vs Vancouver: 23.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUF Score 2.4 3
VAN Score 2.9 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 14.2 / 12.3 12.0 / 11.0
Faceoff % 50.7 / 45.9 50.0 / 50.0
Hits 23.3 / 18.3 15.0 / 19.0
Power Play % 1963.0 / 2209.0 0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 23.3 / 30.6 34.0 / 26.0
Takeaways 3.8 / 3.5 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
90%TICKETS10%
96%MONEY4%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VAN
BUF
VAN
BUF
ML
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
25% 1-3
67% 2-1
ATS
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
100% 3-0
TTL
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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