DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
23-19 | Road
105
CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
10-28 | Home
110
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
0%
HORNETS
100%
MAVERICKS
--
HORNETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
214.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.2
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.2 points (Dallas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAL -4.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)
DAL By 1-7 points
27.4%
DAL By 8-14 points
21.9%
CHA By 1-7 points
19.8%
CHA By 8-14 points
9.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
109.15
DALLAS
Charlotte
104.96
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
Dallas
122
DALLAS
Charlotte
113
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mavericks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mavericks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mavericks (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.2
D
Sim
Mavericks (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 214.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 3, 2026
DAL @ CHA
90 - 117
Jan 29, 2026
CHA @ DAL
123 - 121
Oct 11, 2025
CHA @ DAL
120 - 116
Feb 27, 2025
CHA @ DAL
96 - 103
Jan 20, 2025
DAL @ CHA
105 - 110
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+32.1% more
Dallas: 5.6
vs
Charlotte: 3.8
Steals (L5)
+15.0% more
Dallas: 9.8
vs
Charlotte: 8.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+1.5%
Dallas: 35.6%
vs
Charlotte: 34.1%
Rebounding (L5)
+13.8% more
Charlotte: 47.7
vs
Dallas: 41.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
109.2
105
CHA Score
105.0
110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.1 / 35.6
43.6 / 18.8
Assists
25.8 / 26.1
28.0 / 19.0
Blocks
3.8 / 5.6
7.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
47.1 / 46.6
40.8 / 43.2
Free Throw %
77.6 / 72.8
72.2 / 88.5
Rebounding
47.7 / 41.9
49.0 / 51.0
Steals
8.4 / 9.8
10.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
15.0 / 15.2
13.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
CHA
Advantage
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHA
DAL
CHA
DAL
ML
61%
60-39
62%
63-39
48%
40-44
54%
44-37
ATS
60%
59-40
67%
68-34
48%
40-44
54%
44-37
TTL
58%
57-42
59%
60-41-1
100%
84-0
100%
81-0
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