DETROIT
PISTONSDET
21-21 | Road
107
HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
28-13 | Home
96
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
100%
ROCKETS
0%
PISTONS
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
DET By 1-7 points
21.7%
DET By 8-14 points
10.7%
HOU By 1-7 points
27.2%
HOU By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
113.93
DETROIT
Houston
116.9
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Detroit
107
DETROIT
Houston
115
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rockets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rockets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Rockets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 230.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 222.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 23, 2026
HOU @ DET
111 - 104
Oct 24, 2025
DET @ HOU
115 - 111
Jan 20, 2025
DET @ HOU
107 - 96
Nov 10, 2024
HOU @ DET
101 - 99
Jan 12, 2024
HOU @ DET
112 - 110
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+99.0% more
Houston: 12.0
vs
Detroit: 6.0
Blocks (L5)
+9.7% more
Houston: 5.0
vs
Detroit: 4.5
Rebounding (L5)
+8.9% more
Houston: 49.4
vs
Detroit: 45.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.8%
Houston: 42.0%
vs
Detroit: 34.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
113.9
107
HOU Score
116.9
96
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
42.0 / 34.1
28.2 / 37.0
Assists
24.8 / 23.8
19.0 / 21.0
Blocks
5.0 / 4.5
1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
48.2 / 46.3
39.4 / 47.7
Free Throw %
71.2 / 77.7
68.8 / 86.7
Rebounding
49.4 / 45.4
39.0 / 52.0
Steals
12.0 / 6.0
18.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
14.0 / 13.8
17.0 / 23.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
HOU
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
DET
HOU
DET
ML
61%
69-44
55%
64-53
59%
51-35
49%
47-49
ATS
62%
70-43
53%
60-54-3
59%
51-35
49%
47-49
TTL
51%
58-55
60%
70-46-1
100%
86-0
100%
96-0
Contextual Game News
Cooper Flagg and Mavericks Face Media at NBA China Games in Macao
Matt Barnes: Clippers Are Cursed, Urges Steve Ballmer to Rebrand
Kyrie Irving Set for Mavericks Return in China After 19-Month AC…
Cal Bears' Injury Report: Eight Players Questionable for Virgini…
Phoenix Suns 2026-27 Season Preview: Can Devin Booker and the Re…