DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
25-16 | Road
113
ORLANDO
MAGICORL
23-20 | Home
100
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
0%
MAGIC
100%
NUGGETS
--
MAGIC
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
218.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
DEN By 1-7 points
26.1%
DEN By 8-14 points
16.8%
ORL By 1-7 points
24.4%
ORL By 8-14 points
13.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
109.61
DENVER
Orlando
108.69
ORLANDO
Simulated Score
Denver
114
DENVER
Orlando
107
ORLANDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nuggets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -0.9
D
Sim
Nuggets (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 218.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 27, 2025
DEN @ ORL
126 - 127
Dec 18, 2025
ORL @ DEN
115 - 126
Feb 6, 2025
ORL @ DEN
90 - 112
Jan 19, 2025
DEN @ ORL
113 - 100
Jan 5, 2024
ORL @ DEN
122 - 120
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+30.3% more
Denver: 29.2
vs
Orlando: 20.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+19.6%
Denver: 43.5%
vs
Orlando: 23.9%
Rebounding (L5)
+12.9% more
Denver: 43.9
vs
Orlando: 38.2
Field Goal % (L5)
+11.1%
Denver: 52.4%
vs
Orlando: 41.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
109.6
113
ORL Score
108.7
100
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
23.9 / 43.5
29.3 / 28.0
Assists
20.3 / 29.2
30.0 / 24.0
Blocks
4.4 / 4.4
6.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
41.3 / 52.4
37.3 / 51.9
Free Throw %
69.5 / 78.8
75.0 / 83.9
Rebounding
38.2 / 43.9
39.0 / 57.0
Steals
7.6 / 6.3
15.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
13.3 / 13.3
7.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
ORL
49-42-0
(53.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
ORL
43-48-0
(47.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORL
DEN
ORL
DEN
ML
61%
65-42
54%
57-48
56%
51-40
55%
47-39
ATS
64%
68-38-1
63%
65-38-2
56%
51-40
55%
47-39
TTL
57%
61-46
54%
56-48-1
100%
91-0
100%
86-0
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