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PHOENIX

SUNSPHX

20-20  |  Road

125
FINAL
Sat, Jan 18 • 4:00 PM ET
Little Caesars Arena
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

PISTONSDET

21-20  |  Home

121
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
0%
📊
PISTONS
100%
SUNS --
PISTONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Phoenix)
SunsPHX (-3.5) 0 PistonsDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Suns Cover

57.0%

Pistons Cover

43.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PHX -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)

PHX By 1-7 points

26.7%

PHX By 8-14 points

18.2%

DET By 1-7 points

23.3%

DET By 8-14 points

12.5%

AI Model Projected Score
113.44
PHOENIX
111.67
DETROIT
Simulated Score
120
PHOENIX
112
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Suns Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Suns Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Suns (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.8
D
Sim Suns (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 225.1
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 29, 2026 DET @ PHX 96 - 114
Jan 15, 2026 PHX @ DET 105 - 108
Jan 18, 2025 PHX @ DET 125 - 121
Dec 21, 2024 DET @ PHX 133 - 125
Oct 8, 2024 PHX @ DET 105 - 97
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +26.8% more
Phoenix: 9.0 vs Detroit: 6.6
Assists (L5) +18.7% more
Phoenix: 30.3 vs Detroit: 24.6
Field Goal % (L5) +4.6%
Phoenix: 50.7% vs Detroit: 46.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.5%
Phoenix: 41.1% vs Detroit: 37.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHX Score 113.4 125
DET Score 111.7 121
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.5 / 41.1 27.3 / 28.0
Assists 24.6 / 30.3 22.0 / 25.0
Blocks 5.3 / 4.7 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.1 / 50.7 46.8 / 50.0
Free Throw % 83.1 / 78.7 66.7 / 80.0
Rebounding 46.6 / 41.7 43.0 / 50.0
Steals 6.6 / 9.0 5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 16.2 / 13.8 9.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
50%MONEY50%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
DET Advantage
67-29-0 (69.8%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX Advantage
50-38-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
DET
50-46-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.6
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
PHX
DET
PHX
ML
55% 64-53
57% 60-45
49% 47-49
51% 45-43
ATS
53% 60-54-3
58% 59-43-3
49% 47-49
51% 45-43
TTL
60% 70-46-1
59% 61-42-2
100% 96-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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